1958. Public/private investment and consumer’s expenditure created some development impetus in this region, keeping the loss at 0.38 % of the national output. Improved forecasting and warning systems, introduction of coastal afforestation projects, construction of cyclone shelters in the cyclone-prone areas, and people’s timely evacuation and safe accommodation at the shelters can minimize direct damage and loss of life from cyclone disaster (GoB 2008). World Bank. 2007; Tatano and Tsuchiya 2008). The employment impact of this type of development was huge. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of ECRRP Cyclone Sidr hit on 15 November 2007 inflicted large damages in terms of life and properties in 30 districts of Bangladesh. Further away from the coastal regions, Rajshai and Sylhet Divisions were not impacted by Sidr in terms of output, income, and employment losses. The regional output multipliers were greater than 1.5 for four economic sectors: agriculture; industry; construction; and mining and quarrying sectors. Sidr, with a maximum wind speed of 240 km/h, tidal waves up to five meters high, and storm surges at a maximum of 10 meters in some areas, struck the southwest coast of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007 (GoB 2008). Chittagong Division experienced the highest production loss during Sidr. Some are so torn that no amount of insurance will replace what they've lost . The coastal regions of Bangladesh—Barisal, Chittagong, and Khulna—are more vulnerable to cyclone damage than any other parts of the country. The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions. Natural disasters occur frequently and often produce a large impact on Bangladesh’s economic and social fabric. Therefore, loss of human lives was removed from this analysis. Although the construction sector, which maintains backward linkages with other sectors, faced a loss in worth of 17,784 million BDT (0.16 % of total national output of 2006–2007), this was the only sector that received a gain, in this case a miniscule 0.01 % of total national output of 2006–2007 when investment took place. Job losses were also evident, which eventually affected both producer and consumer. Tags: aid, bangladesh, contaminated, disaster preparedness, disaster shelters, disease, early warning systems, emergency disaster kits, floods, international cricket council, norway, preparedness, storm surge, storm surges, switzerland, uk, usa, warning. This gain occurs because in general after any disaster government investments are mainly directed to these sectors, and thus this response ensures more job opportunities. impact of cyclone Sidr. But the model is criticized because of its linear and static nature. But the flexible adjustment features of CGE models often results in underestimation of economic impacts (Okuyama 2007). Download : Download high-res image (3MB) At the same time, the industrial sector share of GDP had risen almost three times, reaching 27.80 % from 9.86 % (PC 1998; BBS 2004). M. Shinozuka, A. People drank the water. According to GoB (2008) estimates, cyclone Sidr caused direct damages worth of 115,569 million BDTFootnote 1 (USD 1521million). Homes trashed , reduced to scrap . As agriculture and industry are the two key sectors for the regional economies of Bangladesh, generous investment amounts should be directed into these sectors, particularly in the agriculture sector (as the sector becomes severely affected during cyclone disasters). In scenario 2, when change in the final demand vector took place, the sector faced 0.55 % losses in national output. Public and private investment could curtail the income loss of housing sector only by 0.01 % of the total national income. R and Y Strobl, E. 2012. It uses different government, nongovernment, and World Bank (WB) reports, for example, WFP (2007), GoB (2008), World Bank (2010), and utilizes published articles by Karim (2011) and Chowdhury (2012) to formulate two scenarios: (1) direct damages across the economic sectors due to Sidr; and (2) in addition to direct damages, changes in government investment decisions and the spending practices of individual consumers in response to cyclone Sidr. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-016-0100-y, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-016-0100-y, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in Economic impacts of an unscheduled, disruptive event: A Miyazawa multiplier analysis. This research also finds that the present state of consumer spending and investment expenditure is not great enough to handle cyclone-induced output, income, and employment losses. The Joint Damage Loss and Needs Assessment Mission, led by the World Bank, estimated the total cost of the damage caused by Cyclone Sidr at US$1.7 billion, a figure that represents about three per cent of the total gross national product of Bangladesh ().More than two-thirds of the disaster damage was physical and one-third was economic with most damage and losses incurred in the private sector. Drinking water became saline and was contaminated by wastes. The air in a cyclone turns counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Bangladesh, with the Bay of Bengal on its southern border, has been ranked as the most vulnerable country to tropical cyclones (UNDP 2004). A quick perusal of Fig. Planning regions: Bangladesh. Perroux, F. 1950. The agriculture sector, a key sector, was also severely affected by cyclone Sidr. ( Log Out /  Figure 2 shows the path of cyclone Sidr and Sidr-affected districts. Okuyama, Y. Nowadays, the situation has changed significantly. In 2011, nearly 53 % of the country’s total population lived in Dhaka and Chittagong regions with densities of 1539 and 964 people per km2, respectively. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Planning Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. - 209.126.8.79. R are derived from Tables 2 and 3 for identifying the impacts of scenario 1 (direct damages across the economic sectors due to Sidr); and scenario 2 (in addition to direct damages, changes in government investment decisions and the spending practices of individual consumers in response to cyclone Sidr) respectively. The LQ for region R and sector i is defined as: where G stands for the GDP data, the superscript R and N, respectively denote region and nation. In Modeling spatial and economic impacts of disasters, ed. Chittagong will be the least affected division if total income loss is considered. It did kill 3,447 people, but this was much less than the 140,000 that died in 1991. Ali, A. 2010. London: Wiley. The cause is the … Cyclone impacts are estimated in terms of changes in output, income, and employment both nationally and regionally. In this instance the death toll is significantly less (approximately 3,406) however the damage to crop and infrastructure is significant across 30 districts, 200 upazila and 1,950 unions. WPS 4980. Paper prepared under Pro-poor Macroeconomic Policy Study conducted by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Direct damages at the national level were downscaled to create regional damage figures (Table 2). Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh: Damage, loss, and needs assessment for disaster recovery and reconstruction. Provisional estimates of gross regional products: 1995–96 to 1999–2000. 18 Bangladesh Air Force helicopters and five Bangladesh Navy ships were immediately dispatched with food, medicine and relief supplies for the hardest hit areas. The model indicates that restriction applies on the movement of labor and capital once a disaster takes place. Disaster impact analysis at both spatial and sectoral levels remains limited in Bangladesh. Careful regional assessments are prerequisites for the preparation of effective disaster management plans (Rose 2004). Decision support for calamity preparedness: Socioeconomic and interregional impacts. 46 Kalapara Section A: Social Impact Assessment Report 1. During 2006–2007, just before cyclone Sidr, the estimated GDP of Dhaka was USD 16,516 million, which was almost 2.5 times that of Chittagong (country’s second largest city) and 11time that of Sylhet (the estimated GDP was the lowest in 2006–2007) regions respectively. The hazard event caused extensive destruction of infrastructure such as houses, roads, bridges, embankments, and utility and service facilities. Dhaka: Disaster Management Information Center (DMIC), Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), MoFDM, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh, You can also search for this author in Some induced losses also take place due to interindustry linkages in an economic system. Path of cyclone Sidr and Sidr-affected districts in coastal Bangladesh, Source Since the 1980s the development approach had a new dimension: the establishment of “growth centers,” which started with a noticeable resemblance to Francois Perroux’s (1950) “growth poles,” and supported rapid growth of farm and nonfarm sector production and marketing activities. Social and Economic Impact of Tropical Cyclones. Multiplier values were lower for power, gas, water, and sanitary services; trade; and housing services. Change in consumer spending and public/private investment could reduce the amount of loss by 0.15 and 0.13 % of national output for industry and professional and miscellaneous sectors respectively. Change in regional output due to Sidr scenarios, Change in regional income due to Sidr scenarios, Change in regional employment due to Sidr scenarios. Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Sidr (JTWC designation: 06B) was a tropical cyclone that resulted in one of the worst natural disasters in Bangladesh. The aggregation, regionalization, and multiplier, key sector and impact analyses were carried out by Python input–output (PyIO) module developed by the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL), University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.Footnote 2. http://www.adrc.asia/aboutus/vrdata/finalreport/2011B_BGD_Final_Report.pdf. The Bangladeshi cricket team’s tour in New Zealand organised a charity Twenty20 match with all funds raised going to the victims. The regionalization criteria for the method are as follows: Therefore, the regional IO system now takes the form of the following: X Addressing regional inequality issues in Bangladesh public expenditure. Therefore, objective formulation of disaster response policies and their effective implementation should receive due attention both at regional and sectoral level. Structural and nonstructural investment options in the industry and construction sectors may also prove helpful to increase output, income, and employment throughout the district economies. AIT-BUET post graduate project report. In addition, crop type and land cover changed by the farmers destroying about 60 percent homestead and social forest due to cyclonic wind and storm surges created by cyclone Sidr. For instance, cropland (partially affected) and cropland (fully ) comprised 30% and 20% of the total area, respectively, in the classified maps at T 2 and T 3. Since the mid-1990s, assessment of the economic impacts of natural hazards and disasters has received increased attention from researchers. Figure 7 shows loss in income due to Sidr scenarios at the national level. http://www.lcgbangladesh.org/derweb/cyclone/cyclone_assessment/Food%20security%20assessment-IDR%20cyclone%20by%20WFP%20and%20partners_December%202007%20.pdf. While the direct damages caused approximately a 1.25 % induced loss in income, the loss reduced to 0.95 % when changes in consumer spending and public/private investment were taken into account. The cyclone hit Bangladesh at the Bay of Bengal. We sincerely acknowledge and appreciate the support of Ms. Sanjana Islam during the course of this research. ( Log Out /  Over the past 50 years, nearly one million people have died in tropical cyclones. Forecasting of cyclone impacts is not at all within the scope of this study. Policy research working paper No. Butvery few studies have investigated the effects of disasters at a regional scale (for example, Cole 1998; Okuyama et al. The income multiplier was the lowest (0.646) for industrial activities, although the sector’s contribution was the highest in the total national output of Bangladesh. It employs input–output modeling and simulates the changes in national and regional output, income, and employment due to cyclone Sidr. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Sidr. With both the linkage multiplier values less than one, housing services, public administration, and banking and insurance activities became the other notable sectors (neither backward nor forward linkage oriented). ( Log Out /  Although the housing sector was the hardest hit in terms of output loss due to cyclone Sidr, employment loss was the highest for agriculture sector. The research also investigates the ripple effects of post-disaster investment expenditures throughout Bangladesh’s national and regional economies. For these two sectors, changes in the final demand vector bring minimal opportunity to encourage employment. The country is exposed to tropical cyclones and associated storm surges not only because of its geomorphological placement but also due to its demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Archived from the original on November 18, A comprehensive methodology was used to estimate damage to assets, changes in economic flows, and impacts on social and economic conditions. 2012. Cyclones are classified according to their wind speed, ranging from 74 to more than 156 miles per hour. They have integrated a SCGE model with a transportation model and estimated the effects on interregional flows of freight and passengers due to damage inflicted on the transport infrastructure caused by earthquake scenarios in Japan. Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh. Significant variations were observed in sectoral output multipliers across the regions. Relief organizations distributed seven-day emergency disaster kits of food, blankets and clothing for evacuated families. Change in national output due to Sidr scenarios. It caused extensive damages to houses. The other two coastal regions namely Khulna and Chittagong faced income loss of around 0.5 %. 2007; Tatano and Tsuchiya 2008). 1987. The multiplier value was the highest (1.8 × 10−5) for the agriculture sector. 2011. The linkage multipliers trace how an economic sector is dependent on other sectors in both backward (the concerned sector uses input from other economic sector) and forward (the concerned sector’s outputs are used as inputs by other economic sectors) directions. The death toll was estimated at around 3406 (GoB 2008). A global report: Reducing disaster risk: A challenge for development. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The trade sector trailed with a value of 1.0 × 10−5. Bangladesh climate change strategy and action plan. 61. N and ∆Y Housing services become severely affected by a cyclone and it is neither a backward nor a forward linkage oriented sector. http://www.undp.org.bd/projects/prodocs/ERF/Review%20of%20UNDP%20Sidr%20Shelter%20Programme.pdf. PubMed Google Scholar. Professional and miscellaneous services also suffered during cyclone Sidr. 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